July 18, 2001 (UPI) -- Japanese officials in Tokyo and at the international climate change negotiations in Bonn, Germany said today that there had been no change in Japan's position. Recent news reports had raised hopes that Japan had committed to proceeding without the United States, but the situation still remains complex and highly dependent on the outcome of the negotiations currently taking place.

Kazuo Asakai, Japanese ambassador for international economic affairs and global environmental affairs, told United Press International, "We are not saying that Japan will not obstruct the process. We are saying that Japan will participate actively. We will negotiate in good faith. It is more than not obstructing the process."

As for United States participation being a requirement, Asakai said, "To have an international regime without the U.S., which is the largest emitter, accounting for some 36 percent of all industrialized countries emissions, to come up with an arrangement which has this huge loophole, is far from a satisfactory situation. So we are still seeking somehow to have the U.S. participation in this global effort."

Asakai, who is currently in Bonn for the meeting, said he hoped negotiations could be completed successfully in Bonn.

Asked if there were circumstances under which Japan would ratify the Kyoto Protocol without the U.S., Asakai said, "We shall see. But I say, first things first. We do need to have a successful outcome at Bonn. Successful for Japan of course, but hopefully for all others concerned as well."

A spokesperson for Prime Minster Junichiro Koizumi of Japan told UPI on Wednesday that remarks by Japan's environmental minister on Tuesday did not represent any change in stance.

"The prime minister and the government of Japan have always been clear in saying that we hope to see the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in the year 2002. But we also need to work out the details to finalize the process and we are actually working on the details, also, to bring the United States onboard to the entire framework," spokesman Tsutomu Himeno said in a telephone interview from Tokyo.

Remarks widely reported yesterday, quoted Japan's environmental minster, Yoriko Kawaguchi as saying that, "It is very important for all the countries to combat global warming under one rule and therefore to have the United States participate is the best scenario. . . . At the same time we do not have any intention of delaying the international process that is going on." Himeno told UPI that, "I think what Minister Kawaguchi has said is in line with what the prime minister has been thinking and saying all the way through . . . It has always been (Prime Minister Koizumi's) hope, and he has stated that to President Bush, and also in a press conference in Washington, D.C., as he traveled at the end of June."

Kawaguchi is in Bonn for a 180-country meeting to hammer out key details in a draft of the Kyoto Protocol. Many issues that have divided countries for the last few years have yet to be resolved.

A spokesperson for the American delegation in Bonn said today they had no comment on Kawaguchi's remarks.

If Japan received all it asked for in terms of emissions trading and the credit of forests to absorb carbon, it is even possible that Japan could support ratification before 2002, according to Himeno. "The prime minister will decide on that point on the basis of reports he will receive from our minister in Bonn," Himeno said in a telephone interview.

A Japanese government official, speaking from Tokyo on the condition of anonymity, told UPI, "People out in the world do not understand well that detailed operational rules are yet to be worked out. Even though the numerical targets were laid down in Kyoto, we don't know yet how difficult, how much negative impact, achieving those targets would have on our national economy."

While the Japanese say that they have been clear on their position all along, it apparently did not penetrate the minds of many world leaders, who as recently as this week were continuing to make assured Japanese participation the central theme in any discussions with Koizumi.

For the last few months, opinions have been mixed as to what Japan will do and why. Some believe that, because of Japan's dependence on trade with the United States, Japan would go along with the Bush administration's flat refusal to be involved with Kyoto.

Others theorized that Japan's failing plans to increase the use of nuclear power might form the basis of an alliance with the Bush-Cheney team -- which strongly favors a resurgence of nuclear energy. When the Kyoto Protocol was initially formulated in 1997, Japan planned to rely on nuclear power plants to reduce emissions. Since then a series of nuclear accidents in Japan have dimmed the prospects for increased reliance on nuclear power in Japan.

Other experts predicted as recently as a few days ago that Japan would not agree to the Kyoto Protocol because it wants the military protection offered by its alliance with the U.S. Japan's constitution places strict limits on military forces. Additionally, and somewhat contradictorily, some believe that in order to get the U.S. to reduce its military presence in Japan, a fierce domestic issue, that Koizumi was courting the Bush administration.

The correct path of action is clear, as far as the director of the social and environmental systems division of Japan's National Institute of Environmental Studies is concerned. According to Tsuneyuki Morita, "My personal viewpoint is that the Japanese alternatives are very, very, narrow and Japan should maybe select the one way, to ratify, without American participation. This is my predication."

Morita also expressed concern about Japan's place in the international community. "From the international political viewpoint, if Japan neglected to ratify, then the Japanese position in the international political situation might decrease. This would bring huge damage on the Japanese in future international negotiations. Especially, Japan wants to be a member of the United Nations Security Council and Japan might lose the opportunity to be a member of the security council," Morita told UPI.

Morita said he had spoken with senior staff in the ministry of foreign affairs."The senior staff of the ministry of foreign affairs is still considering and no decision has been made." According to Morita, senior staff in the foreign affairs ministry said it was "very difficult to select one option."

Some very real economic benefits could flow to Japan under the Kyoto Protocol. According to Sandy Buffett, head of the globalization and governance program at the Berkeley-based Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, "Japanese companies are well positioned to benefit from Kyoto Protocol type policies and credits which would help promote renewable energy, particularly in developing countries." Large companies in Japan are ready to become involved in solar and wind energy projects in countries such as China and India, according to Buffett.

Morita expressed concern, however, that without U.S. participation the world market for new energy-related technologies would not thrive -- ultimately harming Japan, which has invested heavily in this area.

A successful completion of negotiations in Bonn would be the first step in transforming the entire energy-producing heart of a hundred national economies. Additionally, the monetary value of the emissions rights being negotiated will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

Copyright 2001 by United Press International.